History shows the Bucs have a good shot at winning next year

We all know what a remarkable job the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did in 2010, improving their record by SEVEN games going from 3-13 in 2009 to 10-6 in 2010. But the  Bucs fell hard in 2011, going 4-12, and sadly, that statistically was expected by people who follow such numbers.

But what about year 4, and year 5? Well good news Bucs fans, because the studies show that the Bucs, like most of 20+ teams in NFL History, had winning records in year 4 and 5.

The study looks at teams with a minimum of 7 games improvement on year 1 towards year 2. The 3rd year sometimes resulted in a backwards spiral, similar to what happened to the Bucs this year in 2011. But out of 20 teams since the AFC/NFC Merger, 11 produced winning records in year 4, and 12 had winning records in year 5.

When you look only at teams from 2000 and up, 5 out of 7 teams improved in year 4 and 5. In fact, 4 of the 7 teams had losing records in year 3 like the Bucs did, and of those 4, 3 teams improved from year 3 to 4, and 2 of those three had winning records. The numbers are below, and these are just the teams since 2000.

 

 

Year 1

 Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

y4%          

Year 5

y5 %

CHICAGO, 2000-04      

5-11-0

 13-3-0

4-12-0

7-9-0

0.438

 5-11-0      

0.313

PITTSBUR, 2003-07

6-10-0

 15-1-0

11-5-0

8-8-0

0.500

10-6-0

0.625

SANDIEG, 2003-07

4-12-0      

12-4-0       

9-7-0        

14-2-0      

0.875

11-5-0

0.688

BALTIMO, 2005-09

6-10-0

13-3-0

5-11-0

11-5-0

0.688

9-7-0

0.563

NEWORLE, 2005-09

3-13-0

10-6-0

7-9-0

8-8-0

0.500

13-3-0

0.813

MIAMI    , 2007-10

1-15-0

11-5-0

7-9-0

7-9-0

0.438

6-10-0

0.375

ATLANTA, 2007-10

4-12-0

11-5-0

9-7-0

13-3-0

0.813

10-6-0

0.625

 

The study below shows ALL the teams even before the AFL/NFL merger, and the year 1,2 and 3 results are not shown, but all of them have a team with 7 or more games improvement from year 1 to year 2. The chart below shows year 2 and 3, but they consider those years 4 and 5 the way we are counting. They are counting -1, 0, 1, then 2 and 3, using the first season as a negative one, and the improvement year as year zero. 

Team

Year 2

Pct.

Year 3

Pct.

SD (AFL), 1962-66

9-2-3

.750

7-6-1

.536

OAK (AFL), 1962-66

8-5-1

.607

8-5-1

.607

BAL, 1974-78

10-4-0

.714

5-11-0

.313

NE, 1975-79

11-5-0

.688

9-7-0

.563

DET, 1979-83

4-5-0

.444

9-7-0

.563

SF, 1980-84

10-6-0

.625

15-1-0

.938

CIN, 1987-91

9-7-0

.563

3-13

.188

DEN, 1990-94

9-7-0

.563

7-9-0

.438

IND, 1991-95

8-8-0

.500

9-7-0

.563

SD, 1991-95

11-5-0

.688

9-7-0

.563

NYJ, 1996-00

8-8-0

.500

9-7-0

.563

ATL, 1997-01

4-12-0

.250

7-9-0

.438

IND, 1998-02

6-10-0

.375

10-6-0

.625

STL, 1998-02

14-2-0

.875

7-9-0

.438

NO, 1999-03

9-7-0

.563

8-8-0

.500

CHI, 2000-04

7-9-0

.438

5-11-0

.313

PIT, 2003-07

8-8-0

.500

10-6-0

.625

SD, 2003-07

14-2-0

.875

11-5-0

.688

BAL, 2005-09

11-5-0

.688

9-7-0

.563

NO, 2005-09

8-8-0

.500

13-3-0

.813

MIA, 2007-10

7-9-0

.438

6-10-0

.375

ATL, 2007-10

13-3-0

.813

10-6-0

.625

TB, 2009-10

??

??

??

??

SF, 2010-11

??

??

??

??

Totals

198-137-4

.590

186-160-2

.537


 

Work on bottom chart done by Tampa Bay Buccaneers site and posted on www.buccaneers.com. Top chart is taken from bottom chart, and augmented with stats from NFL.com.

Nick

About Nick

Fanatical Bucs follower since the 1979 season- and proud owner of over 650 Tampa Bay Buccaneers games on DVD going back to 1977. Blogger and historian for all things Bucs.

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